SrasV1, France, Analysis, bibRecord, 000183

Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA

Identifieur interne : 000183 ( France/Analysis ); précédent : 000182; suivant : 000184

Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA

Auteurs : Marc Choisy [France] ; Pejman Rohani [États-Unis]

Source :

Proceedings of the Royal Society B [ 0962-8452 ] ; 2012.

RBID : ISTEX:49F342C6D6AED45D23E490158C2552118E6C0175

Abstract

Prediction and control of the geographical spread of emerging pathogens has become a central public health issue. Because these infectious diseases are by definition novel, there are few data to characterize their dynamics. One possible solution to this problem is to apply lessons learnt from analyses of historical data on familiar and epidemiologically similar pathogens. However, the portability of the spatial ecology of an infectious disease in a different epoch to other infections remains unexamined. Here, we study this issue by taking advantage of the recent re-emergence of pertussis in the United States to compare its spatial transmission dynamics throughout the 1950s with the past decade. We report 4-year waves, sweeping across the continent in the 1950s. These waves are shown to emanate from highly synchronous foci in the northwest and northeast coasts. In contrast, the recent resurgence of the disease is characterized by 5.5-year epidemics with no particular spatial structure. We interpret this to be the result of dramatic changes in patterns of human movement over the second half of the last century, together with changing age distribution of pertussis. We conclude that extrapolation regarding the spatial spread of contemporaneous pathogens based on analyses of historical incidence may be potentially very misleading.

Url:

https://api.istex.fr/ark:/67375/V84-KDSXKGR3-Z/fulltext.pdf

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2012.1761

Affiliations:

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ISTEX:49F342C6D6AED45D23E490158C2552118E6C0175

Le document en format XML

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<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">Prediction and control of the geographical spread of emerging pathogens has become a central public health issue. Because these infectious diseases are by definition novel, there are few data to characterize their dynamics. One possible solution to this problem is to apply lessons learnt from analyses of historical data on familiar and epidemiologically similar pathogens. However, the portability of the spatial ecology of an infectious disease in a different epoch to other infections remains unexamined. Here, we study this issue by taking advantage of the recent re-emergence of pertussis in the United States to compare its spatial transmission dynamics throughout the 1950s with the past decade. We report 4-year waves, sweeping across the continent in the 1950s. These waves are shown to emanate from highly synchronous foci in the northwest and northeast coasts. In contrast, the recent resurgence of the disease is characterized by 5.5-year epidemics with no particular spatial structure. We interpret this to be the result of dramatic changes in patterns of human movement over the second half of the last century, together with changing age distribution of pertussis. We conclude that extrapolation regarding the spatial spread of contemporaneous pathogens based on analyses of historical incidence may be potentially very misleading.</div>
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Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA

Changing spatial epidemiology of pertussis in continental USA

Source :

Abstract

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

Links to Exploration step

Le document en format XML

Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)

Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri